Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency of individuals to selectively seek
information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs while ignoring or
undervaluing that which contradicts them.[1]
According to psychologist Thomas D. Gilovich, "the most likely reason for
the excessive influence of confirmatory information is that it is easier to
deal with cognitively."[2]
In other words, we generally wish to prove that which we believe to be true, because
it would be harder to accept being wrong. This bias has several manifestations
and implications with regard to prayer:
- Evidence that prayers were “answered” tends to outweigh evidence suggesting they were “ignored.”
- Prayers that were presumably answered tend to be recalled more easily and frequently than ones that were not.
- Theists who primarily focus on the “answered” prayers discuss their experience with others who also believe their prayers are regularly answered. This reinforces and compounds the belief among those in the immediate and greater community.
Ignoring Probabilities
Ignorance of statistical probabilities tends to lead to a greater
degree of confirmation bias in praying theists. Generally speaking, people will
pray for things which are fairly probable. When these likely events do occur,
they serve as a regular affirmation to theists that God is answering their
prayers. On the flip side, when something improbable occurs after a prayer, some
theists consider it irrefutable proof of divine intervention. What most people
never realize is that improbable events happen all the time. Planes crash,
lotteries are won, the worst sports teams beat the best sports teams, etc. Every
day in our lives, things occur which have never occurred, and which we never
thought could occur. However, when it’s something of emotional significance
which also relates to the contents of a prayer, people tend to automatically
presume a causal relationship. As my old statistics teacher once drilled into
my head, “correlation does not infer causation.” In addition, given
confirmation bias, these unlikely “hits” tend to overshadow the much more numerous
“misses” with regard to prayers for improbable outcomes.
The Placebo Effect
According to MedicineNet.com, the placebo effect is “a remarkable
phenomenon in which a… fake treatment… can sometimes improve a patient's
condition simply because the person has the expectation that it will be
helpful. Expectation plays a potent role in the placebo effect. The more a
person believes they are going to benefit from a treatment, the more likely it
is that they will experience a benefit.”[3]
This phenomenon is testament to the power of human psychology. Here are just a
few fun facts about the effect which show just how powerful expectations can be:[4]
- Fake surgeries can sometimes be just as effective as the real thing
- Yellow placebos help best with depression, green helps with anxiety, and white pills sooth stomach issues like ulcers
- Placebos not only produce the preferred effects of a treatment, but they can also induce expected negative side-effects as well
- People can become intoxicated off of a placebo
Faith Healing
In the New Testament, Jesus cured those who had faith in him, as did
his disciples.[5]
Today, the tradition of faith healing continues to be prevalent, as people pray
for health more than any other purpose.[6]
In some Christian sects, faith healers claim to have a special connection with
God, allowing them to heal the sick better than traditional medical treatments.[7]
Given the prevalence of this phenomenon, it’s hard to believe so many would buy
into it if people didn’t believe they were getting better. However, couldn’t
the benefits of prayer be the same as those produced by the placebo effect? Certainly
both seem to require that individuals fervently believe in the treatment/prayer
in order for it to work properly. As the American Cancer Society explains,
“When a person believes strongly that a (faith) healer can create a cure, a
“placebo effect” can occur. The placebo effect can make the person feel better,
but it has not been found to induce remission or improve chance of survival
from cancer.”[8]
Does Prayer Work?
There have been many prayer studies throughout the years which have
sought to control for the placebo effect by focusing only on intercessory
prayers (IP). That is, prayers done on the behalf of others sometimes without
the knowledge of the subject of the prayer. While there has been much publicity
around studies which showed that prayer had a substantial effect, these have
all been soundly criticized for having severe methodological issues.[9][10]
In 2006, the largest and most meticulously scrutinized prayer study was
published, which sought to overcome flaws in earlier investigations.[11]
The study split 1,800 cardiac patients into 3 groups: 1) those receiving IP
without their knowledge, 2) those receiving IP and being notified they were
being prayed for, and 3) those who received no prayer. Researchers then
accounted for those participants who experienced health complications within 30
days of coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The results: 52% of those who
were prayed for without their knowledge had health complications vs. 59% of
those who were told they were being prayed for, and 51% of individuals that
were not prayed for had complications. In short, the IP did not have any
effect.[12]
Well, the people who were
praying just didn’t have enough faith…
Alright, it is possible the prayers weren’t impassioned enough. Maybe
there needed to be a stronger spiritual connection between the prayer and
prayee. Consider the study which showed that in the past 30 years, over 200
children have died because their parents relied on faith healing instead of
conventional medical treatments?[13]
Surely, you’d need to have a great deal of faith in order to avoid proper
medical treatment for your child, with whom you would presumably also share a
deep spiritual connection.
Well, God doesn’t like being
tested…
Okay, maybe God expects you to seek medical treatment when it’s
available, but what about when it isn’t? Consider the case of Nigeria, which is
known for its awful healthcare system.[14]
It is the 2nd most religious country in the world; it has the 14th
highest infant mortality rate, and the 11th highest malaria death
rate.[15][16][17]
I’m not suggesting the religiosity led to the malaria and infant mortality. The
lack of proper access to healthcare is a sufficient explanation by itself. However,
given their religiosity, you can imagine just how fervently they must pray for
their sick and dying. You can imagine in particular, just how hard mothers will
pray for the lives of their dying children. In the end, they die just as though
no one was listening.
Conclusion
When reviewing the evidence, it seems apparent that prayer just doesn’t
work. While many theists may be capable of coming up with personal anecdotes
regarding the efficacy of prayer, confirmation bias, statistics, and the
placebo effect sufficiently explain their beliefs and experiences.
Resources
Good video about science and prayer
Good placebo video
Placebo effect
Great book about prayer studies
I've read William James' "Varieties of Religious Experience." He noted several examples where people had been to a religious revival or had been praying for God, when all of a sudden, some time later, they were overwhelmed. This was a feeling like they were being filled up with energy or a presence. Without trying to explain this, James said he thought these experiences did happen. So, when people describe their subjective experience of praying and their feelings about it, there is something going on. Is it God? Does their experience indicate the existence of God? Who knows.
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